UNCLAS TALLINN 000582 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV, EN SUBJECT: WHAT MAKES TOOMAS HENDRIK RUN?
1. (SBU) Summary. Former Foreign Minister Toomas Hendrik Ilves is one of the front runners as we approach August's first round of elections for president, a job Ilves tells us he does not want. Openly disdainful of incumbent Arnold Ruutel, Ilves explained that he had to run because he could not stomach the prospect of five more years of Ruutel and his "kolkhoz manager mentality." Ilves expects the election to go to the Electoral College, where he believes he stands a 50/50 chance of winning. End Summary. I DON'T WANT TO, BUT I HAVE TO ------------------------------
2. (SBU) In typically brassy fashion, former Foreign Minister and current presidential candidate Toomas Hendrik Ilves marched into his meeting with us and began by saying: "So, I guess you want to know why I want this job. Well, I don't want it." Ilves explained that twice before he has sacrificed a comfortable life to serve his country -- once when he gave up his position as head of RFE's Estonian Section to become Ambassador to Washington, and again when he agreed to become Foreign Minister. Ilves claimed to have no interest in committing himself to a life of near poverty for his country a third time, especially for a job that has as little power as that of Estonia?s president.
3. (SBU) So, why is Ilves running? Simple. He disdains incumbent President Arnold Ruutel, saying that during Ruutel's tenure Estonia has effectively lacked a President. And, Ilves believes, he is the only person who has a chance of ousting Ruutel. He portrays a Ruutel-Ilves showdown as a battle between entrenched old regime-era figures with their "kolkhoz manager mentality" and eastward-orientation and Estonia's younger, westward-oriented generation. HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT --------------------
4. (SBU) Ilves thinks he is the only candidate who stands a chance of uniting enough of Estonia's political establishment to beat Ruutel. This is not because the political elite particularly like him. It is, instead, because Ilves is the only potential candidate popular enough with the public to have a real chance of beating Ruutel.
5. (SBU) As Ilves sees it, the election will not be decided in the parliament, even though he claims to have the two-thirds support among deputies required for election. Since they know this, Ilves believes the leaders of the People's Union (Ruutel's old party) and the Center Party will not allow their deputies to participate in the secret ballot election. This will leave Ilves three votes short of the required two-thirds and throw the election into the Electoral College, where the parliamentary deputies will be joined by a large number of local officials.
6. (SBU) Ilves shrugs off press reports that People?s Union and Center are actively recruiting support among these local officials with promises of budgetary largesse. (Both parties are members of the governing coalition, whereas Ilves? Social Democratic Party is in opposition.) In the end, Ilves believes local officials with an eye to their own political futures will vote the way they think will be most popular back at home. He believes he holds the trump there given what he claims is his greater popularity even in rural areas where Ruutel is supposed to be strongest. (NOTE: Recent polls asking voter preferences in a Ruutel-Ilves contest show a jump in support for Ruutel since he announced he would run for re-election. This jump has eaten away most, but not all, of Ilves' lead in earlier polls.) Taking all this into account, Ilves believes he stands a 50/50 chance of winning in the Electoral College. AND WHAT IF HE DOES? --------------------
7. (SBU) So what will Ilves do if he does wind up with this job he says he doesn't want? He does not intend to flout the constitutional limits on the president's role as he believes his patron, Lennart Meri, did. At home, he will use his bully pulpit to try to constrain the politicians he so clearly disdains such as Center's Edgar Savisaar and People's Union's Villu Reiljan. In foreign policy, he thinks he can fill an important void, serving as the voice for new EU entrants who want to push the EU in two important directions: towards more liberal economics -- he points out that his Estonian Social Democratic Party votes more liberally on economic issues than the German CDU -- and a more pro-U.S. foreign policy. WOS ----------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000941 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EN SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S NEW PRESIDENT PART I: ILVES ELECTION SHAKES UP POLITICAL LANDSCAPE REF: A. TALLINN 00887 B. TALLINN 00756 Classified By: by DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (SBU) Summary. Toomas Henrik Ilves brings international perspective and strong foreign policy experience to the presidency in Estonia. In contrast to his predecessor, Ilves has made it clear that he will use the presidency as a bully pulpit on both domestic and foreign policy issues. While the presidential election represented the first shots in next spring's parliamentary election campaign, it is not yet clear what effect Ilves' election will have on the results of those elections. This cable reports Ilves' biography, his likely operating style, and some initial thoughts on how his election might affect the domestic political situation. A companion piece will consider Ilves? role in foreign policy. End Summary. From Exile to Diplomat ----------------------
2. (U) Ilves was born in Stockholm, Sweden on December 26, 1953 to Estonian emigre, parents who had fled the Soviet occupation of Estonia in 1944. Ilves grew up in the United States and attended Leonia High School in New Jersey. He received a BA and MA in psychology from Columbia University (1976) and the University of Pennsylvania (1978). For much of his early career, Ilves was an academic: an English teacher at the Open Education Center (1979-1981) in New Jersey, Director of the Vancouver Arts Center (1981-1983, and Lecturer in Estonian literature and linguistics at Simon Fraser University (1983-1984) in Canada.
3. (U) Ilves returned to Europe in 1984 to work for Radio Free Europe in Germany as an analyst and researcher (1984- 1988), and eventually was promoted to Head of the Estonian Desk (1988-1993). During this time, Ilves was a prominent and active member of the Estonian exile community in Europe and North America.
4. (C) In 1993, Ilves relinquished his U.S. nationality in order to become Estonia's Ambassador to the United States, Canada, and Mexico (1993-1996). He subsequently served twice as Foreign Minister (1996-1998 and 1999-2002). During his tenure, Ilves often pointed to Estonia's avoidance of the "double no" (exclusion from being one of the first round of candidates for EU and NATO membership) as his finest achievement at the MFA. Unlike Latvia and Lithuania, which focused their attention on NATO membership, Ilves went on a fifteen country barnstorming tour throughout Europe to gain support for EU membership. As he often told confidents, "The road to NATO runs through Brussels." Ultimately, Estonia was included in the EU's first round of membership negotiations while the other Balts were not.
5. (SBU) Ilves is considered by many within Estonia's MFA - often internally referred to as "the house that Meri built" - as one of their own. In contrast to Meri's tendency toward radical reformer and institutional architect, Ilves focused on strengthening continuity and stability within the MFA. In one of his last speeches as Foreign Minister, he highlighted his pride that Estonia's foreign policy had transitioned from "breakthroughs" to "sustained foreign policy irrespective of government changes." A Political Animal in Estonia and Brussels ------------------------------------------
6. (U) Ilves has been a major political figure in domestic politics since 1998. He moved from the Peasants Party (a conservative rural party) to the People's Party (a reformed Peasants Party) and later to the Moderates Party (which he led). In 2002 when the coalition government collapsed (Pro Patria, Reform, and Moderates), Ilves reconstituted and renamed the Moderates as the Estonian Social Democratic Party. During the last four years, Ilves has been the Social Democrats most visible and prominent member, although he gave up the post of party leader after his election to the European Parliament in 2004.
7. (C) In the 2004 European elections, it is generally recognized that the Social Democrats strong showing in Estonia was a direct result of Ilves personal popularity. From 2004 to 2006, Ilves was a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) where he served as Vice-President of the Foreign Affairs Committee. As an MEP, Ilves focused on EU- Russian relations, EU-U.S. relations, EU neighborhood policy (concerning Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, and the Balkans), energy security, and human rights. In one of his first speeches in the European Parliament in 2004, TALLINN 00000941 002 OF 003 Ilves warned against the EU withdrawing into a "fortress Europe" and called on the EU to direct more resources toward its new neighbors. As a strong Atlanticist, Ilves privately expressed to us his dissatisfaction with growing anti-Americanism not only in Brussels but in Europe in general (septel). The People's Choice -------------------
8. (U) On October 9th, Ilves was sworn in as Estonia's fourth president (Ref A). While his margin of victory in the election was only one electoral vote, he has emerged with a clear popular mandate. Recent polls indicate Ilves has strong popular support across most sectors of society, with the exception of Estonia's Russian-speaking population: - 81 percent of ethnic Estonians - 33 percent of non-Estonians - 74 percent of 18-34 year olds - 62 percent of senior citizens - 76 percent of higher-educated voters - 54 percent from those with just elementary and/or high school diplomas - 80 percent of people with an income over 6,000 EEK ($481) per month - 59 percent of people with an income between 2,000 - 4,000 EEK ($160-$321) per month - 71 percent of women and 64 percent of men - 65 percent of Tallinn residents - 72 percent of small town and rural residents Ilves' strong support in rural areas is notable, as this is the traditional base for both former President Arnold Ruutel and the People's Union. Even more surprising - one third of Ruutel supporters have indicated satisfaction with Ilves - victory. Political Implications of Ilves- Victory ----------------------------------------
9. (SBU) In accordance with the constitution, after the election, Ilves relinquished his affiliation with the Social Democratic Party. He also called for abandoning the notion of a "pro-presidential party." Ilves' election significantly weakened the basis of the recent political agreement between Center Party and the People's Union. As part of that deal, a reelected Ruutel was reportedly to have nominated Minister of Economy Edgar Savisaar as prime minister of a Center Party-People's Union government after the parliamentary elections next spring. (Ref B). However, Ilves' victory and the recent resignation of People's Party Leader Vilju Reiljan as Minister of Environment (due to a land scandal), has left many pundits wondering what direction the People's Union will take. Lea Kiivit, People's Union Secretary General, told us that the party is in a period of "serious reflection" over its future.
10. (C) At the same time, Ilves' election has energized the four parties that supported him (Res Publica, Pro Patria, Reform, and Social Democrats). Ott Lumi, Res Publica Secretary General, expressed to us his satisfaction with SIPDIS the four parties' cooperation in bringing about an Ilves win. Lumi said, "We have shown that we can work together successfully...and now we have a positive energy we can carry into the (parliamentary) elections!" Recent polls indicate that Center Party's popularity is slipping and Reform is now the most popular party (with the public and the donors) in Estonia.
11. (C) In spite of Ilves' weak support among Russian- speakers, his victory has made some politicians optimistic about the possibility of weakening the Center Party's traditional lock on the Russian-speaking vote. Randel Lants, Secretary General of the Social Democrats, told us his party believes Ilves' election has created an opportunity to "chip away at Center Party's hold on the Russian vote." Lants noted that many Social Democratic policy proposals (i.e., more funding for social programs) resonate with the Russian-speaking minority, and Parliamentary elections next spring could result in a possible realignment of the Russian vote. While this is unlikely in the short term, even a relatively small reduction in the Russian-speaking community's support for Center could have a decisive impact on the outcome of Parliamentary elections next spring. A Bully Pulpit --------------
12. (SBU) In Estonia's parliamentary system, the presidency TALLINN 00000941 003 OF 003 holds limited powers. However, it is clear that Ilves plans to be more active than his predecessor. He has frequently cited President Lennart Meri (1999-2001) as an important role model in his professional life. Symbolically, after his victory in the electoral college, Ilves' first stop was Meri's grave. Ilves will likely emulate Meri's use of the presidency as a bully pulpit, although he has told us that, unlikely Meri, he will not push the constitutional limits of the president's authority. Vello Pettai, Tartu University professor of Estonian politics, told us that Ilves has always been vocal and opinionated - "now he will have the platform of the presidency to get his message across." Andres Kasekamp, Director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute and a fellow Estonian emigre, who has known Ilves since his days in the United States, described Ilves' style as "big picture." "Unlike Meri," Kasekamp told us, "Ilves will not have his fingers in every pot; Ilves will paint with broad strokes and leave the detail work to others." Personal Insights -----------------
13. (C) According to those who know Ilves personally, he is a man who "does not like being handled." He is widely perceived to be arrogant and aloof, but also an independent thinker and intellectual. Even though his political opponents have routinely labeled him as a bohemian dilettante (which he does not seem to mind), they grudgingly accept him as one of Estonia's foreign policy heavyweights. Ilves routinely writes his own speeches and articles, which often make historical, philosophical, and literary allusions that betray his academic past and his wide range of interests. He is well read and regularly refers to the works of Enlightenment thinkers. In his inaugural speech he quoted John Locke and Jean-Jacque Rousseau. Ilves lacks a natural regional base in Estonia, because he grew up overseas. He has compensated for this in part through membership in various organizations, fraternities, and associations. He has also shown an eye for self-promotion (through his newspaper articles and television interviews ) and self-branding (he always wears bow ties).
14. (U) Ilves is married to Evelin Ilves with whom he has one daughter, Kadi Keiu. He has two children - Luukas Kristjan and Juulia Kristiine - from a previous marriage. His son Luukas is currently a student at Stanford University. WOS ----------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000964 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2016 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EN SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S NEW PRESIDENT PART II: A MORE ASSERTIVE FOREIGN POLICY REF: A. TALLINN 00941 B. TALLINN 00845 Classified By: by DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) Summary. Newly-elected Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves has highlighted three foreign policy priorities for his presidency: helping to improve transatlantic relations, increasing Estonia's profile in and contributions to the European Union (EU) and development of a coherent and coordinated EU policy towards Russia. It is unclear how much Ilves will be able to deliver due to the constraints of his office, but Ilves will definitely use the bully pulpit of the presidency to push his ideas. End Summary. Staunch Supporter of Good Trans-Atlantic Relations --------------------------------------------- -----
2. (C) Ilves has strong ties to the United States. Born to Estonian emigre parents, Ilves was raised in New Jersey and educated in U.S. universities. After Estonian re-independence, he served as Estonia's Ambassador to the United States from 1993 to 1996. Unsettled by rising anti-Americanism in Europe, Ilves has made efforts to strengthen transatlantic ties a high priority for his presidency. Prior to the election, Ilves consistently and publicly supported Estonia's participation in international peacekeeping operations. He has argued that Estonia's participation in Iraq and Afghanistan are important commitments in the context of Estonia's larger global security concerns and its NATO obligations (Ref A).
3. (C) Ilves is considered a foreign policy heavyweight in Estonia, and he will likely take an active role in shaping domestic debate on key issues including Iraq. Ilves' supporters highlight the advantage of having a president who can articulate and explain Estonian foreign policy decisions to average Estonians. Some of his detractors, however, think Ilves' interest in foreign policy could marginalize Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and/or Prime Minister Andres Ansip's role. As Lea Kiivit, People Union's Secretary General said to us, "The last thing Estonia needs is three foreign ministers."
4. (C) Even though Ilves has supported USG positions on key security issues (i.e., Iraq and Afghanistan), regional policy (assistance for Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova), and EU economic policy (i.e., Common Market reforms), he has demonstrated a maverick side to his character by not shying away from criticizing the United States. For example, although he supports Estonia's presence in Iraq, Ilves once publicly said that Estonia was "sold a bill of goods" on Iraq regarding the justification of the war when WMDs were not found. He has publicly criticized the USG's position on the International Criminal Court. We understand that during internal meetings of the European Socialist Bloc within the European Parliament he has also criticized the U.S. position on the Kyoto Protocols and alleged human rights abuses in Guantanamo. He has also become more vocal on visa-waiver for Estonia. Ilves has pledged on a number of occasions to press for visa-waiver. Olari Koppel, Ilves' Advisor, said to us that Ilves' position is firmly backed by the majority of Estonians. "This is an important issue for the President," commented Koppel, "and he will remind Americans that terrorists are not coming out of Estonia as they do in some visa-waiver countries." A Good European...of Sorts --------------------------
5. (U) From 2004 to 2006, Ilves was a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) where he served as Vice- President of the Foreign Affairs Committee. As an MEP, Ilves was active in EU-Russian relations, EU-U.S. relations, EU neighborhood policy (concerning Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, and the Balkans), energy security, and human rights. Ilves worked hard in Brussels to develop his European bona fides through his work on the Foreign Affairs Committee while also positioning himself as one of the more well known MEPs from the new member states.
6. (C) Ilves' transatlanticism, as well as his defense of the United States' role in European security, has often put him at odds with MEPs from his own European party, the European Socialist Group. Previously, Ilves complained to us about the "whacky leftists" in the European Socialist party he has butted heads with -- TALLINN 00000964 002 OF 002 comparing their mindset and "knee-jerk anti-Americanism" to former Soviet times.
7. (SBU) While in Brussels, Ilves took active part in debates over high profile EU issues, often making allies across the political spectrum from Euro-Federalists (to Euro-Skeptics. Ilves argued in favor of a common EU foreign policy, a common position on energy security, and the adoption of the European Constitution. At the same time, he often supported initiatives to lighten the regulatory burden on businesses and industries in the Common Market (i.e., the Services Directive, the Financial Services Action Plan, and the Lisbon Agenda).
8. (SBU) Like other new members, Estonia has been reticent to press its interests too forcefully, to take an active position on broader EU issues or to criticize the EU. However, Ilves wants Estonia to have a more vocal and active presence in Brussels. Soon after he was elected President he announced his intentions to place Estonia "among the generators of ideas in Europe," to speak up in EU debates on behalf of Estonia and aspirant countries, and to help increase the influence of the EU's new member countries in the formulation of common EU policy. Addressing Moscow through Brussels ----------------------------------
9. (SBU) Ilves has made clear in public remarks and writings that he believes Russia's western border marks a line between contrasting civilizations and conflicting world views. He is an advocate for stronger EU support for democratization and market reform efforts in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, in order to draw these countries out of Russia's orbit. Ilves has said that foreign relations with Russia should be conducted via the EU. He has criticized the EU's current approach to Russia as piecemeal and incoherent and expressed concern that Russia is effectively utilizing its traditional "divide- and-conquer" approach to get what it wants. Ilves has expressed his desire to work with the European Commission and other member states to unify the EU's approach to Russia.
11. (U) In one of his first speeches in the European Parliament in 2004, Ilves warned the EU against withdrawing into a "fortress Europe" by commenting on the "yawning economic, social, legal and political gulf between the European Union and (its) new neighbors." He called on the EU to direct more resources towards these countries and resist the growing "enlargement fatigue" among the older member states. Shutting the door for future EU enlargement, according to Ilves, would only hurt vulnerable democratic countries. It would also reduce the pressure on undemocratic countries like Belarus to change. For Ilves, any retreat by the EU in the region would constitute abandoning these countries to Russia.
12. (C) Comment. Though Ilves has raised the bar of expectations, it is unclear how he much he can actually deliver due to the constitutional constraints of his office. However, it is clear that he will use his office to speak out often and forcefully in favor of the policies and ideas he considers important. End Comment. WOS